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Krzysztof kuhy Rudnicki
3babda92d2
The Vite/React/TS dice solver had no git history yet. Commit it alongside a run.sh that ensures Node/pnpm are present, installs deps, and starts the dev server with a single command. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
81 lines
3.9 KiB
Markdown
81 lines
3.9 KiB
Markdown
# KCD2 Dice Solver
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Pick which six dice and which badge to bring to a game of dice in
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*Kingdom Come: Deliverance II*. Enter what you own; the solver evaluates every
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loadout your inventory allows and reports the best one with the numbers behind
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it.
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```bash
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pnpm install
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pnpm dev # http://localhost:5174
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pnpm test # full suite
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pnpm coverage # 100% statements / branches / functions / lines
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pnpm lint # tsc --noEmit + eslint (strictTypeChecked)
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pnpm build
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```
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## Entering an inventory
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Three ways, all wired to the same state:
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- **Click** a die's row to add one.
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- **Scroll** the mouse wheel over its counter to step it up or down.
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- **Search** by name — a fuzzy match, so `wei` finds *Weighted die* and
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`paintb` finds *Painter's die B*. The same box filters the badge list.
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The inventory is saved to `localStorage`, so it survives a reload.
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## How the recommendation is computed
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**Scoring** (`src/core/scoring.ts`) is the wiki's table: 100 per one, 50 per
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five, `1000` for three ones and `100 × face` otherwise, doubled for each die
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beyond three, and 500/750/1500 for the three straights. A roll scores the best
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*partition* of its dice, which is a small memoised search.
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**Expected value** (`src/core/evaluate.ts`) is exact, not sampled. Scoring
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depends only on the multiset of faces, so the six dice are convolved into a
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distribution over count vectors — at most 924 of them, against 6⁶ = 46,656
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ordered outcomes. Those vectors stay packed as integers end to end, so the
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scorer's memo is keyed on them directly. `evaluate.test.ts` checks the result
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against a naive full enumeration that shares none of that machinery.
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**The search** (`src/core/search.ts`) evaluates whole sets, because a Farkle
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set's value is not the sum of its dice — ranking dice individually and taking
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the top six is simply wrong. Dice with identical distributions are pooled
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first (nine of the game's dice are plain uniform dice under different names).
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Small inventories are enumerated exhaustively and reported as *provably
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optimal*; larger ones use a multi-start steepest-ascent local search and are
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reported as *not proven*.
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**Turn value** (`src/core/simulate.ts`) is a Monte Carlo simulation, and unlike
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the above it depends on how you play. The policy is stated explicitly in that
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file and its knobs are exposed rather than buried: hold the subset maximising
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`points + 60 × dice-left`, bank at 300.
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**Badges** (`src/core/badgeValue.ts`) split in two. The five that change the
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scoring table are valued on the exact EV delta after re-running the whole dice
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search with the rule on — so equipping one can change which dice you should
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bring. The rest are simulated one charge at a time, with each turn drawing from
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its own seeded stream so the comparison is paired and the measured difference is
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the badge rather than a diverged random sequence.
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Nothing uses `Math.random`; every random source is a seeded `mulberry32`, so
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every number here is reproducible.
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## What the numbers are not
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- **Balatro's die** publishes no face probabilities. Every face is a wildcard
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("you get to choose how it's counted"), so it is modelled as always resolving
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in your favour — which means it always wins if you own it.
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- **The three "Advantage" formations** (Carpenter's Cut, Executioner's Gallows,
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Priest's Eye) and the **Headstart** point leads have no published values. The
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constants used are marked `UNVERIFIED` in `src/data/badges.ts`. Correct them
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from the game's help screen if you have it open.
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- **Badge point-per-game figures** are estimates for ranking badges against each
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other, not a prediction of a scoreline.
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- The wiki and [Inara](https://inara.cz/kingdom-come-2/items-dice/) **disagree**
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on about six dice (Ci/Fer/Lu, Painted, Trinity, Holy Trinity, Devil's head).
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The [fandom wiki](https://kingdom-come-deliverance.fandom.com/wiki/Dice/KCD2)
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is treated as canonical; the Inara figures sit in a comment beside each
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conflicting entry.
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